We’re all trained to be overly skeptical. Markets are generally efficient. Everything is priced in. You never get something for nothing.
It’s not surprising that this mentality gets ingrained in us. We live in a culture of economic distrust. Everyone is out to get us. We’re the products being sold on Facebook and Google. Anyone offering us a free CD or squeegeeing is a charlatan. If something looks too good to be true, it must be.
It’s taken me over nine years to recant the skepticism. But I’ve recanted. “Too good to be true” opportunities end up being good and true all the time. There seems to be free money everywhere. That money might be risky. Sometimes, you’re picking up nickles in front of steam rollers. Most of the time, though, you end up picking up fifties in front of baby strollers.
I’m trying a new strategy in 2015 (along with the other strategies I detailed earlier). I plan to pick up (in small size) any “plausible” free money in the markets.
- It must obviously be free money and a no-brainer.
- It should be too good to be true without being a definite scam.
- Estimating the free money must not be more complicated than assessing 3-4 numbers with arithmetic.
- It must be well known free money (ie, it’s not a secret that I’ve discovered by digging into the 10K).
- Any previous market actions don’t matter… nothing is ever priced in.