OK, the crude flow-through seems real…
And wage inflation around the corner? (courtesy of @esoltas)
So we need to ask ourselves:
1) Is the doom & gloom market-top view justified? Is the contrarian view a bullish view?
2) Can the governments/central banks of the world sufficiently shield us from negative shocks (EM crisis)?
3) Will the Chinese government end up easing (Western-style money printing)? Or will they continue a slow targeted restructuring of the economy?
I think the Russian worst-case is off of the table (default). Venezuela is probably in a bind though.