I’m going to add a short USDRUB position with tiny notional. This is a semi-short-term trade… might exit any moment.
1) Russia has reserves to cover M2 at the ~60 USDRUB. Back in 98, they had roughly 1/3 of M2.
2) O/N rates are around 26% (around 16% on interactive brokers for smaller amounts).
3) Oil / gas is a real asset, despite the drop in price.
4) Russia will probably get Yuan financing on its ~170BB rollover private external debt?
Also went long GILD a tiny amount at 94.20 (lost money already).