I’m going to add a short USDRUB position with tiny notional. This is a semi-short-term trade… might exit any moment.
1) Russia has reserves to cover M2 at the ~60 USDRUB. Back in 98, they had roughly 1/3 of M2.
2) O/N rates are around 26% (around 16% on interactive brokers for smaller amounts).
3) Oil / gas is a real asset, despite the drop in price.
4) Russia will probably get Yuan financing on its ~170BB rollover private external debt?
Also went long GILD a tiny amount at 94.20 (lost money already).
OK, the crude flow-through seems real…
And wage inflation around the corner? (courtesy of @esoltas)
So we need to ask ourselves:
1) Is the doom & gloom market-top view justified? Is the contrarian view a bullish view?
2) Can the governments/central banks of the world sufficiently shield us from negative shocks (EM crisis)?
3) Will the Chinese government end up easing (Western-style money printing)? Or will they continue a slow targeted restructuring of the economy?
I think the Russian worst-case is off of the table (default). Venezuela is probably in a bind though.